I’ve been thinking about the poll to the right and how it looks like the odds may be stacked up against the Red Sox this season (and today’s game certainly doesn’t help my case) but I think the Sox have a legitimate shot in the 2010 season. Looking back on the ’09 season I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about how the offseason trades impact the Sox this year and here’s what I came up with. If you think about the wins and losses as a math equation the Sox come on top. Here we go, (these are all extremely rough estimates); I’ll try to divide it into categories.
Losses last year that won’t happen again
Lugo and Green: 10 games
Pitching staff: 15 games
LF defensively: 5 games
3B defensively: 5 games
Varitek: 15 games
Total: 50 games lost last year that will be avoided this year.
Now wins that won’t happen this year
Bay offensively: 15
Lowell offensively: 15 -20 games (remember Lowell hit for a much higher average than Bay)
Ortiz’s decline: 10 games
Total: 45 wins that won’t happen this year.
Which leaves the Sox ahead roughly, by 5 gives giving them a 100-62 record. While this is hardly exact it does make sense and the Sox could have a decent season when you think about the bad pitching and defense they lost and how they replaced it with a much better team.
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